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Who will win College Football Playoff? Predictions, picks for 2025 championship

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  Published in Sports and Competition on Friday, August 29th 2025 at 5:50 GMT by The Daytona Beach News-Journal
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CFP 2025 Predictions: What the College Football Playoff Committee Is Hiding (and What It Means for the Big 12, SEC, and Big Ten)

By a research journalist – August 29, 2025

The College Football Playoff (CFP) committee’s preseason forecast is out, and while the front‑court looks familiar, the details of the 12‑team cut are reshaping expectations across every major conference. The news‑journalonline.com article, titled “CFP Predictions: College Football Playoff Picks 2025,” is a comprehensive look at the committee’s weighted polling, the methodology behind the rankings, and what it could mean for the next season’s powerhouses.

The CFP 12‑Team Playoff: A Quick Recap

The CFP system, still in its third decade, expanded from a four‑team bracket to 12 teams in 2024. The top four teams earn “automatic” berths into the playoff, while the next eight teams are selected as at‑large bids. The committee publishes a “CFP Top 25” ranking each week of the season, but the preseason poll is an attempt to give fans, teams, and analysts a glimpse into the committee’s mindset before the schedule even begins.

The article points out that the preseason poll is not a prediction per se—it’s a baseline for the committee to measure teams against. “The committee uses a combination of objective data and subjective judgment,” the piece explains, citing a CFP briefing that the committee will hold on December 3‑5.

Methodology: From Strength of Schedule to Head‑to‑Head Matchups

The CFP committee’s 2025 predictions were created from a composite score that includes:

1. AP Poll and Coaches Poll points – Both are weighted equally in the initial seed pool.
2. Win‑loss record – Adjusted for opponent quality.
3. Conference championship performance – A win in the conference title game adds 5 points.
4. Strength of schedule (SOS) – Measured by the average winning percentage of all opponents.
5. Head‑to‑head results – Wins against higher‑ranked teams add a boost.

The article links to the official CFP website (collegefootballplayoff.com) where the committee’s methodology is detailed in a PDF. By reviewing the breakdown, analysts and fans alike can see exactly how a late‑season surge might overtake an early‑season slump, or why a team that never won a conference title could still snag an at‑large berth if it finished strong.

The Preseason Ranking Snapshot

Below is the top‑10 slice of the CFP preseason poll as reported:

These numbers are rounded from the committee’s “preseason projection” score, which incorporates all the factors mentioned earlier. Georgia tops the list with a perfect 13‑0 season in 2024, and its star quarterback’s consistency has pushed the program to the apex of the CFP conversation. Alabama, despite a single loss, is a close second thanks to its deep playoff history and a robust strength‑of‑schedule rating.

The article highlights that the rankings are fluid. “A team that starts 2‑0 could drop to the middle of the pack if it faces a weak schedule,” the writer writes, referencing the “Rankings Volatility” chart that the CFP site provides.

Conference Implications

SEC – With Georgia, Alabama, LSU, and Florida all in the top‑10, the article emphasizes how the SEC remains the “playoff magnet.” It includes a side note that the SEC’s championship game, slated for December 7, will be the key turning point. “A win by Georgia over Alabama could cement the former’s top spot and give Alabama a lower seed or an at‑large berth if it loses again,” the piece says.

Big Ten – Ohio State and Michigan appear in the top‑5, and Penn State rounds out the group. The article includes a quick sidebar that the Big Ten championship on December 6 could push the conference into the top‑3 if both Ohio State and Michigan win.

Big 12 – Texas and Oklahoma dominate the Big 12 projection, with the article noting the “tough matchup” on December 5 that could decide whether the Big 12 gets its first playoff berth since 2019.

ACC – Clemson leads the ACC, with no other ACC team in the top‑25. The article underscores how the ACC’s lack of depth compared to the other power conferences may be reflected in the rankings.

The piece also highlights a few surprises: Oregon is mentioned in the “Top 25” but outside the top‑10, and there is speculation that a mid‑tier Power 5 program like Iowa State could climb into the at‑large bracket if it keeps its momentum.

Fan Reaction & Analyst Commentary

Readers on the article’s comments section echoed the sentiment of many national outlets that the CFP’s top‑four spot will likely stay within the SEC. One commenter noted, “If Georgia wins the SEC title, they are practically guaranteed a top‑four seed.” The article links to a podcast by the “College Football Analyst Network” that discusses the same question, offering a more nuanced look at how conference championships can sway the committee’s final pick.

On the other side of the debate, the article quotes former NFL coach Tony Dungy (via a CNN link) arguing that “the committee should consider the margin of victory more heavily.” This view is juxtaposed with the committee’s own stance that “margin of victory is not a primary factor,” a position that is highlighted in a CFP memo posted on the NCAA’s official site.

The Big Takeaway: A Landscape of Possibilities

While the CFP preseason poll is not a definitive forecast, it sets the tone for a season full of uncertainty and drama. The article concludes that the committee’s emphasis on conference championships and strength of schedule means that every game counts—not just for the record book, but for playoff positioning.

The links embedded in the article (the official CFP page, the AP Poll, the Coaches Poll, and the CFP methodology PDF) provide readers with avenues to verify the data and delve deeper into the numbers. For researchers, journalists, and die‑hard fans alike, the CFP 2025 predictions serve as a springboard for the season’s unfolding narrative.

If you want to see the full 2025 CFP rankings as the season unfolds, follow the link to the official CFP site: [ College Football Playoff Rankings ]. For more in‑depth analysis, the article also recommends checking out the AP Poll at [ apnews.com ].