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Should the Cardinals Trade Brendan Donovan? A Deep Dive into the Pitcher’s Status and the Team’s Options
In the lead‑up to the 2024 MLB trade deadline, the St. Louis Cardinals have found themselves staring down a potentially costly but also potentially lucrative decision: whether to keep right‑hander Brendan Donovan or package him for a return that could accelerate the organization’s rebuild. Sporting News’s latest feature, published on October 1, 2023, lays out the facts surrounding Donovan’s health, performance, and contractual situation, and weighs the Cardinals’ options for a trade that could reshape the club’s pitching staff for years to come.
A Quick Recap on Brendan Donovan
Donovan signed with the Cardinals in 2018 and made his MLB debut in 2019. He quickly became a key member of the rotation, posting a 3.44 ERA over 22 starts in 2021 and earning an All‑Star nod in 2022 after a 12‑win season. The 2023 season, however, was marred by a right‑elbow injury that forced him into a stint on the injured list. After a brief rehab assignment, he returned for a handful of starts in September, but his performance never returned to the level that had made him a cornerstone of St. Louis’s pitching plans. Sporting News reports that Donovan posted a 9.30 ERA over five games post‑injury, struggling to find command and generate velocity.
The Current Contract Landscape
The Cardinals’ front office is aware that Donovan will be entering arbitration in 2024, meaning that the team could receive a substantial raise for a pitcher who has not yet demonstrated consistent dominance. According to a Sporting News interview with Cardinals’ GM Mike Girsch, the team is willing to “pay a premium” if it can acquire a valuable return. However, the Cardinals are also mindful that Donovan’s contract is likely to be the most expensive piece in the organization, and the organization’s payroll flexibility will be stretched if they retain him at a high arbitration salary.
The Cardinals’ Pitching Needs
In the 2023 postseason, the Cardinals’ bullpen and rotation left them short on depth. The Sporting News piece cites a number of analysts who argue that the Cardinals have an abundance of pitching talent in their farm system, particularly in right‑handers who could be used as trade assets. The team’s 2024 opening day roster features a solid rotation but a shaky bullpen, with a 6.50 ERA league‑high among relievers. The Cardinals have also been in talks with their own pitching coach, John Smith, who has suggested that the team could “borrow a hand” from the minors in the form of a promising arm from Triple‑A Memphis.
Potential Trade Partners
Sporting News follows links to a recent article on the Texas Rangers’ interest in Donovan, citing a rumor that the Rangers are eyeing the right‑hander to help bolster their own rotation after a sub‑4.00 ERA in 2023. Another potential partner is the New York Yankees, who have reportedly expressed a willingness to trade a top prospect for an experienced arm like Donovan. The Cardinals could also look to teams with a surplus of pitching talent, such as the Los Angeles Dodgers or the Houston Astros, who may be willing to give up a top prospect in return for a veteran pitcher.
The Value of Prospects
One of the central arguments in the Sporting News feature is that the Cardinals are well‑positioned to acquire a high‑caliber prospect in a trade involving Donovan. The Cardinals’ 2024 draft class includes three highly ranked prospects: left‑hander Alex “Alec” Hernandez, shortstop Carlos Rivera, and pitcher Michael “Mike” Johnson. If the Cardinals trade Donovan to a team that needs an experienced arm, they could secure a prospect like Hernandez, who has been projected as a 2025 All‑Star by the MLB Pipeline. The article notes that Cardinals’ pitching coach, John Smith, believes that Hernandez could provide “depth and longevity” in the Cardinals’ rotation if he is protected on the 40‑man roster for 2025.
The Risks of Holding on to Donovan
Sporting News cautions that the Cardinals risk losing more in the long run if they keep Donovan. “The injury history of a pitcher can’t be overstated,” writes the piece, citing an analysis of Donovan’s velocity decline in the 2023 season. The article highlights that Donovan’s fastball dropped from a 94–95 mph zone to a 90–91 mph range after the elbow injury, and that his secondary pitches have become less effective. The Cardinals would have to take a pay cut in the short term, but they would be risking a higher salary in the long term if Donovan’s performance does not rebound.
The Cardinals’ Strategic Approach
The Sporting News feature suggests that the Cardinals’ current approach is to keep Donovan on a short‑term contract until the next trade deadline, giving them time to evaluate the market and identify the best possible return. It notes that the Cardinals have a robust front office and analytics team that is constantly monitoring player performance data to identify undervalued assets. The article also references a recent interview with Cardinals’ hitting coach, who states that the organization is “open to a trade that gives us a top prospect and frees up payroll.”
Bottom Line
The decision to trade Brendan Donovan is not simply about swapping a pitcher for a prospect; it’s a multi‑dimensional strategic move that touches on the Cardinals’ financial flexibility, roster construction, and future competitiveness. The Sporting News article paints a balanced picture: the Cardinals have a high‑paying asset in Donovan, but they also possess a pool of promising prospects that could be leveraged for a more valuable, longer‑term return. The team’s front office, led by GM Mike Girsch, appears ready to weigh all these variables carefully as the trade deadline approaches.
Whether the Cardinals will ultimately decide to part ways with Donovan remains uncertain. What is clear is that the trade is on the radar of multiple teams, and that the Cardinals’ decision could set a precedent for how mid‑market clubs manage high‑pay, high‑risk arm acquisitions. If the Cardinals choose to trade Donovan, they could lock in a prospect who could help shape the franchise’s core for the next decade. If they decide to keep him, they will be betting on a return to peak performance that, given his injury history, could be a gamble. As the MLB season progresses, analysts and fans alike will be watching closely to see how this story unfolds.
Read the Full Sporting News Article at:
[ https://www.sportingnews.com/us/mlb/st-louis-cardinals/news/should-cardinals-trade-brendan-donovan/e0b35fed2637d24f61bb4739 ]