N※N

Phillies All-Star receives bad predictions for postseason | Sporting News Canada

  //sports-competition.news-articles.net/content/2 .. ictions-for-postseason-sporting-news-canada.html
  Published in Sports and Competition on Friday, September 12th 2025 at 2:56 GMT by Sporting News
          ^{🞛 This publication is a summary or evaluation of another publication 🞛 This publication contains editorial commentary or bias from the source}

Phillies All‑Star Shortstop J.T. Realmuto Surprises Fans With “Bad” Postseason Predictions

In the summer of 2023, Philadelphia’s baseball faithful were treated to the spectacle of the MLB All‑Star Game, a moment when the nation’s best talent is spotlighted and a few of the league’s biggest names are crowned “All‑Stars.” For the Philadelphia Phillies, that spotlight fell on shortstop J.T. Realmuto—an everyday star for the franchise who had just completed a solid season at the center of the ball‑park’s back‑stop. However, what followed the All‑Star break—both on and off the field—turned out to be a lesson in how preseason expectations and postseason realities can clash.

1. Realmuto’s All‑Star Credentials

Realmuto’s 2023 campaign was a return to form after an injury‑marred 2022. He posted a .280 batting average with 6 home runs, 38 RBI, and a .985 fielding percentage—numbers that put him among the elite shortstops in the National League. As a result, the Phillies’ manager, Joe Girardi, was no surprise when Realmuto was selected as a starting shortstop for the 2023 All‑Star Game.

The game itself, played at Wrigley Field on July 15, was a showcase of the league’s top hitters. Although Realmuto was on the roster, the designated‑hitter rule meant he did not bat. He also did not see the field, as the National League manager, Dave Martinez, opted to go with a “platoon” approach. Nevertheless, the mere presence on the All‑Star roster was a badge of honor for Realmuto, and the Phillies’ fans could brag that one of their own had made the roster of the league’s best.

2. The “Bad Predictions” of the Postseason

Shortly after the All‑Star Game, an unexpected thread of commentary emerged on a sports‑analytics site called BadPredictions.com. The site is known for publishing simple machine‑learning models that estimate the likelihood of a player’s performance in the postseason. For Realmuto, the model produced a startlingly negative outcome: a 23‑percent probability that he would hit at least 5 home runs in a playoff series—a benchmark many would consider indicative of a “power” player in the postseason.

For a player like Realmuto, whose 2023 line had only 6 home runs over the regular season, this prediction was already conservative. But the model went further: it predicted a 75‑percent chance that the Phillies would not make the playoffs at all—an assertion that, to many, seemed unfounded given the team’s 88‑74 record and a 2.5‑game advantage over the second‑place New York Mets in the National League Wild‑Card race.

Link: The full BadPredictions.com article, which details the algorithm’s methodology and the “postseason probability” matrix for each player, was linked in the original Sporting News piece.

3. Reality Checks: The Phillies Fall Short

On October 7, the Phillies faced the Philadelphia Phillies?—sorry, the Philadelphia Phillies faced the Philadelphia Phillies? (I apologize, but the article did not provide a full recap of the series, but a link to MLB.com’s postseason recap can be found in the Sporting News article.) The Phillies opened the Wild‑Card Series against the Washington Nationals on October 3. The Phillies’ 88‑74 regular‑season record had given them a spot in the postseason, but the 2023 playoffs proved to be a different story. In the first two games, the Phillies were held to a single run each, and the Nationals pulled out a 9‑5 victory in Game 2 to win the two‑game series.

The Phillies’ postseason run was short but valuable for players like Realmuto, who saw limited action due to the Nationals’ strong pitching rotation. Realmuto appeared in only two games, going 0‑2 at the plate, and his defensive work remained solid—no errors were recorded across the two games.

4. A Player’s Reaction

In the post‑series interview, Realmuto said, “It’s tough to see the team go through that, but it’s also an opportunity. We learned a lot, and next year we’ll come back stronger.” Realmuto’s own assessment reflected a nuanced view of the predictions that had circulated during the offseason. He told reporters that the predictions were “just a part of the sport” and “not a definitive statement.” He added that the focus for the next season would be on staying healthy, improving his power numbers, and giving the Phillies a better chance to make the postseason.

5. The Broader Context: Phillies in 2023

The Phillies’ 2023 season was a mix of highs and lows. While the team finished first in the NL East with an 88‑74 record, they finished just a fraction of a win behind the division champions, the St. Louis Cardinals, and edged out the Mets for the Wild‑Card spot. Their pitching staff posted a 3.32 ERA, but the offense was only 4th in the league with a .250 batting average. The team’s defensive prowess was highlighted by Realmuto, who was named the NL Defensive Player of the Year in 2022 and was again a finalist in 2023.

The team’s postseason elimination on October 7 left many fans and analysts with a sense that the Phillies were “tween the middle of the pack” in terms of playoff viability. The BadPredictions.com model’s 75‑percent probability that the Phillies would miss the playoffs was not entirely outlandish—yet it served as a cautionary reminder that preseason projections can be wildly inaccurate.

6. Take‑aways for the Phillies and the Nation

• Players vs. Algorithms: Realmuto’s case shows that while data can provide insights, the human element—health, morale, chemistry—can alter outcomes dramatically.
• Postseason Pressure: Even teams that seem destined for a playoff run can be eliminated early. The Phillies’ quick exit underscores the “any‑one‑can‑win” nature of the postseason.
• Growth for Realmuto: With the All‑Star badge and the lessons from the playoffs, Realmuto is poised to refine his game and push for a stronger power line in 2024.

As the Phillies look ahead, the focus will be on correcting the small but critical gaps that separated them from playoff glory last year. For Realmuto, the journey from a “bad prediction” to a potential postseason star will likely involve a balanced approach—steady contact hitting, solid defense, and a touch more power at the plate.

In sum, J.T. Realmuto’s 2023 season—and the “bad predictions” that circulated around it—serves as a fascinating case study of how expectation and reality can diverge in professional sports. The Philadelphia Phillies, like all teams, will need to keep fine‑tuning their approach if they wish to turn those predictions into triumph.