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"Wait till 2031": Akume urges Northern politicians

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  SGF George Akume urges Northern politicians to wait till 2031 to contest presidency, praising Tinubu's national reforms and inclusive governance.

Akume's Call for Patience: Northern Politicians Urged to Shelve Presidential Ambitions Until 2031


In a bold and politically charged statement, George Akume, the Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF) under President Bola Tinubu's administration, has advised northern politicians in Nigeria to temper their presidential aspirations and wait until 2031 before making any serious bids for the nation's highest office. This directive, delivered during a recent public engagement, underscores the delicate balance of power rotation in Nigeria's multi-ethnic democracy and highlights the ongoing tensions surrounding regional representation in national leadership. Akume's remarks come at a time when the country is grappling with economic challenges, security issues, and the ever-present undercurrents of ethnic and regional rivalries that have defined Nigerian politics since independence.

Akume, a seasoned politician from Benue State in the North-Central region, emphasized the importance of honoring the informal power-sharing agreement that has long been a cornerstone of Nigeria's political stability. This unwritten pact, often referred to as the "gentleman's agreement," stipulates that the presidency should alternate between the northern and southern parts of the country to foster unity and prevent any single region from dominating the political landscape. President Tinubu, a southerner from Lagos State, assumed office in May 2023 following the eight-year tenure of Muhammadu Buhari, a northerner from Katsina State. According to Akume, allowing Tinubu to complete what could potentially be two full terms—spanning from 2023 to 2031—would ensure fairness and equity in the rotational system.

During his address, Akume was unequivocal in his message to ambitious northern leaders. "The North should wait till 2031," he stated, urging them to support the current administration rather than plotting early moves that could destabilize the fragile political equilibrium. He argued that premature jostling for power could lead to unnecessary divisions and distract from the pressing national agenda, including economic reforms, infrastructure development, and combating insecurity in various parts of the country. Akume's position is not without precedent; similar calls for patience have been made in the past to maintain harmony, such as during the transition from Olusegun Obasanjo's southern presidency to Umaru Yar'Adua's northern one in 2007.

To fully appreciate the context of Akume's urging, it's essential to delve into the historical underpinnings of power rotation in Nigeria. The concept gained prominence after the return to civilian rule in 1999, following years of military dictatorships that exacerbated ethnic tensions. The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which dominated politics for the first 16 years of the Fourth Republic, institutionalized this rotation through its zoning formula, ensuring that key positions, including the presidency, were alternated between the North and South. This was evident in the presidencies of Obasanjo (South, 1999-2007), Yar'Adua (North, 2007-2010), Goodluck Jonathan (South, 2010-2015), and Buhari (North, 2015-2023). The All Progressives Congress (APC), the ruling party since 2015, has also tacitly adhered to this principle, with Tinubu's emergence as the 2023 candidate seen as a nod to southern interests after Buhari's northern tenure.

However, this system is not without its critics and challenges. Detractors argue that zoning prioritizes regional balance over merit and competence, potentially sidelining qualified candidates based solely on geography. In the North, where poverty rates are higher and developmental needs are acute, there is growing frustration among some politicians and citizens who feel that waiting another eight years for a shot at the presidency could marginalize the region further. Prominent northern figures, including former governors and senators, have already begun subtle campaigns or alliances hinting at 2027 ambitions, viewing Tinubu's administration as a one-term proposition amid economic hardships like inflation and fuel subsidy removal.

Akume's intervention can be seen as a strategic move to consolidate support for Tinubu within the APC and among northern allies. As SGF, Akume plays a pivotal role in coordinating government policies and maintaining party cohesion. His background as a former governor of Benue and a key APC stalwart positions him as a bridge between the North and the South-West-dominated leadership. By appealing to northern politicians to "hold their fire," Akume is essentially advocating for loyalty to the current regime, promising that patience will be rewarded in due time. He referenced the need for unity in tackling national issues, such as the Boko Haram insurgency in the North-East, banditry in the North-West, and farmer-herder conflicts in the North-Central, which require a stable federal government to address effectively.

Reactions to Akume's statement have been mixed, reflecting the polarized nature of Nigerian politics. Supporters, particularly from the South, hail it as a pragmatic approach to sustaining democracy and preventing the kind of ethnic strife that plagued the country in the 1960s, leading to the Biafran War. Political analysts point out that a premature northern challenge could fracture the APC, potentially benefiting opposition parties like the PDP or the Labour Party, which made significant inroads in the 2023 elections. For instance, Peter Obi of the Labour Party garnered substantial northern votes, indicating shifting allegiances that could complicate future contests.

On the other hand, some northern voices have expressed discontent, viewing Akume's advice as an attempt to extend southern dominance. Critics argue that the North, with its larger population and historical grievances, deserves a quicker return to power, especially if Tinubu's policies fail to deliver tangible benefits. Social media platforms have buzzed with debates, with hashtags like #NorthWaitsNoMore trending among youth activists who demand merit-based leadership over rotational politics. Influential northern elders, such as those in the Arewa Consultative Forum, have yet to issue official responses, but past statements suggest they favor adhering to zoning while pushing for northern interests within the current framework.

Beyond the immediate political implications, Akume's call raises broader questions about the sustainability of Nigeria's federal structure. The country's 1999 Constitution does not explicitly mandate power rotation, leaving it as a political convention rather than a legal requirement. This ambiguity has led to legal challenges in the past, such as disputes over party primaries and candidate selections. As 2027 approaches, the debate over zoning is likely to intensify, with potential court cases and party congresses becoming battlegrounds for regional ambitions.

Moreover, the economic context cannot be ignored. Nigeria is facing its worst cost-of-living crisis in decades, with inflation soaring above 30% and youth unemployment rampant. Northern regions, heavily reliant on agriculture and facing climate change impacts, are particularly vulnerable. Politicians from the North may leverage these hardships to argue for earlier intervention, positioning themselves as saviors who can address regional disparities. Akume's urging, therefore, is not just about timing but about framing the narrative around national unity versus regional self-interest.

In urging patience until 2031, Akume is also subtly endorsing Tinubu for a second term, assuming the president seeks re-election. This aligns with the APC's strategy to build a legacy of stability and progress, drawing parallels to successful rotational models in other diverse nations like Switzerland or Belgium. However, success will depend on the administration's performance; if economic reforms yield results, northern politicians may be more inclined to wait. Conversely, persistent failures could ignite a backlash, making 2027 a contentious election cycle.

Ultimately, Akume's message serves as a reminder of the intricate dance of power in Nigeria—a nation where ethnicity, religion, and region often intersect with ambition. As the country navigates these waters, the call to "wait till 2031" may either foster enduring peace or sow seeds of discord, depending on how northern leaders respond. For now, it stands as a pivotal moment in the ongoing saga of Nigerian democracy, where patience is portrayed not as weakness, but as a strategic virtue for the greater good.

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