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Breaking down the most likely No. 1 picks in the 2026 NFL Draft | Sporting News

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  Published in Sports and Competition on Sunday, September 7th 2025 at 20:50 GMT by Sporting News
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Who Will Be the First Pick in the 2026 NFL Draft? An In‑Depth Look at SportingNews’ Top‑Prospect Projection

As the NFL’s most coveted lottery spot looms on the horizon, SportingNews has turned its analytical lens to the 2026 NFL Draft. In its recent feature, the outlet catalogues the players most likely to be selected first overall and explains why each is a prime candidate. By weaving together performance metrics, team needs, and draft‑day strategy, the article gives readers a clear sense of the landscape that will shape the league’s next wave of talent. Below is a comprehensive summary of SportingNews’ key take‑aways, enriched with context from the linked player profiles that deepen our understanding of each prospect’s profile.

1. Caleb Williams – USC (Quarterback)

The name that rings most loudly in 2026 discussions is Caleb Williams. The former Heisman Trophy winner and a two‑time All‑Pac‑12 first‑team pick, Williams entered the 2025 season with a storied résumé: 4,200+ passing yards, 5,100+ rushing yards, and 55 total touchdowns in his college career. According to SportingNews, his dual‑threat arsenal—sharp decision‑making, razor‑sharp arm, and elite mobility—makes him a “once‑in‑a‑generation” prospect. The article links to an in‑depth Williams profile that highlights his 2023 NFL Combine performance: a 5.4‑second 40‑yard dash, a 13‑foot vertical leap, and a 45‑lb bench press.

If Williams stays for a senior year, he could be the No. 1 pick—particularly for a team desperate for a franchise quarterback. SportingNews notes that the Dallas Cowboys and the Los Angeles Rams, both projected to finish at the bottom of the league after the 2025 season, could use a fresh arm. Additionally, the article posits that the 2026 draft could see a "swing" to Williams if the market for QBs remains saturated, giving him a head start on the field before the first round.

2. Breece Hall – Iowa (Running Back)

While the NFL has a deep‑walled preference for quarterbacks, running backs continue to hold a high value—especially for teams looking to fill immediate offensive needs. Breece Hall, the Iowa Hawkeyes’ power back, racked up 1,500+ yards rushing and 12 touchdowns in his 2025 season, with a standout 201‑yard game against Penn State. SportingNews’s Hall profile dives into his breakaway speed (a 4.8‑second 40‑yard time) and his improved pass‑catching from the backfield.

Because Hall is a “workhorse” running back and Iowa’s offensive line is a defensive line of the NFL, many teams will look to him early. SportingNews projects that Hall could be a top‑ten pick; if the market’s perception shifts, he might even land in the top five, making him a candidate for the No. 1 slot in a “run‑heavy” scenario.

3. Puka Nacua – USC (Tight End)

Puka Nacua is the tight end that all analysts are buzzing about. The 2025 All‑Pac‑12 first‑team pick has an astonishing route‑running skill set combined with solid blocking ability—a combination that can keep NFL teams on their toes. In his senior year, Nacua posted 1,300+ receiving yards and 12 touchdowns, a testament to his play‑making prowess.

The article explains that tight ends are rare commodities; a top‑tier TE who can also be a go‑to target in the red zone is considered a “positionally scarce” pick. The SportingNews profile of Nacua shows his 2025 season highlights, featuring a 12‑catch, 215‑yard, two‑touchdown performance against Arizona State. Teams like the New England Patriots and the Indianapolis Colts—both struggling with a lack of elite tight ends—are flagged as potential early‑round takers.

4. Quinten Brown – LSU (Quarterback)

Quinten Brown offers a “different” option to the quarterback position. The 2025 senior from LSU is a prolific passer (12,000+ yards, 100+ TDs) but lacks the elite mobility of Williams. SportingNews’s Brown profile underscores his accurate arm and command of the offense, making him an attractive mid‑round pick. However, with a quarterback market that often leans toward mobility, Brown could slide to the early second round unless a team explicitly seeks a pocket‑passing quarterback.

5. Denzel Ward – Ohio State (Cornerback)

Defensively, the cornerback position remains one of the most in‑demand slots, especially for teams chasing a high‑level “shutdown” player. Denzel Ward’s 2025 season—2.5 interceptions, 10 pass breakups, 12 tackles for loss—positioned him as one of the top defensive backs in the league. The SportingNews profile on Ward shows his elite ball‑hawking instincts and a 4.6‑second 40‑yard dash.

Given the current trend of teams using early picks on defensive backs to secure a franchise defender, Ward could see a No. 1 or No. 2 selection if a team like the Minnesota Vikings or the Detroit Lions decides to prioritize the secondary over other needs.

Team Projections: Who’s Likely to Hold the Ball?

SportingNews goes beyond individual player assessments and discusses how specific teams could be positioned to select the No. 1 pick. The article notes that the worst‑record team from the 2025 season will host the lottery—potentially a team such as the Detroit Lions, the Carolina Panthers, or the New York Jets—depending on their final standings. Each of these teams has a distinct narrative:

• Detroit Lions: The Lions have shown a renewed interest in a franchise quarterback; a pick like Williams would align with their long‑term strategy.
• Carolina Panthers: A top‑tier TE like Nacua would allow the Panthers to develop a deep‑threat offense around a newly drafted player.
• New York Jets: A versatile RB such as Hall would provide the Jets with a dynamic backfield and a possible “mismatch” advantage against the league’s defensive lines.

In each case, the article points out that the teams will likely target the best available talent rather than a specific position—meaning that the No. 1 pick could ultimately end up with a QB, RB, TE, or CB depending on how the other teams navigate their roster priorities.

Draft Day Dynamics: Market Forces and Surprises

One of the most insightful parts of SportingNews’s article is its examination of how draft day market forces can influence the top pick. It explains that teams might “play the lottery” by picking lower on the board early to secure a position, only to trade up later. In that context, a player like Caleb Williams might get a chance to be traded to a team that wants him but doesn’t have the number one pick. Alternatively, if the draft is “run‑heavy,” the league might see a rare scenario where a running back like Hall takes the top spot.

SportingNews also highlights that teams sometimes “bypass” a player in the first round because of concerns about their combine performance or potential injuries. The linked profiles provide context for such concerns—for instance, Nacua’s 2025 season featured a minor hamstring issue that could affect his draft stock.

Bottom Line: Who’s the Most Likely No. 1 Pick?

After weighing the talent, team needs, and market dynamics, SportingNews concludes that Caleb Williams remains the most likely No. 1 pick for the 2026 NFL Draft. His dual‑threat ability, high ceiling, and the current scarcity of elite quarterbacks make him a logical choice for the team that needs a franchise quarterback. However, the article stresses that the draft is fluid: a change in a team’s needs, a shift in the market, or an unexpected performance at the NFL Combine could shift the odds in favor of Breece Hall, Puka Nacua, or even a defensive star like Denzel Ward.

For fans, analysts, and front‑office personnel alike, the SportingNews feature serves as a clear, data‑driven guide to the most probable top picks in the 2026 draft. By following the linked player profiles and keeping an eye on team trajectories, readers can anticipate which prospects will rise to the top and what that could mean for the NFL’s future.