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Who's Likely to Climb Into the CFP -- and Who Could Fall Out?

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  Published in Sports and Competition on Thursday, November 6th 2025 at 0:22 GMT by Fox Sports

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College Football Playoff Outlook: Who’s Likely to Rise and Who’s at Risk of Falling Out

As the 2023‑24 college football season barrels toward its final stretch, the spotlight has sharpened on the College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings that will decide the four teams that will compete for the national championship. FoxSports’ latest analysis breaks down which squads are poised to climb into the top four and which powerhouses could see their playoff dreams slip away as the season draws to a close.

Teams Poised for Playoff Inclusion

Alabama Crimson Tide – With a 10‑1 record, a dominant defense, and an undefeated conference record, Alabama sits at the pinnacle of the CFP polls. Their lone loss came early in the season to a top‑25 opponent, and they have already secured the SEC championship. The committee’s criteria—overall record, conference championship, head‑to‑head results, and strength of schedule—work in Alabama’s favor, especially after a convincing win over a ranked rival in the SEC title game.

Georgia Bulldogs – Georgia’s 11‑0 record and a resounding victory over Alabama in the SEC championship game give them a strong claim to the #2 seed. Their defensive prowess and offensive consistency have kept them undefeated, and the committee has noted that their performance in the title game bolsters their “win‑on‑high‑stakes‑games” metric.

Ohio State Buckeyes – Ohio State’s 10‑1 record, highlighted by a 52‑17 win over Michigan in the Big Ten Championship, places them firmly in the conversation. The Buckeyes’ strength of schedule includes games against several ranked opponents, and their loss in the opening weeks to a lower‑tier team was a one‑off that the committee is expected to overlook.

Clemson Tigers – Clemson remains a strong candidate with a 10‑1 record, a 56‑38 victory over Florida State, and a solid offensive attack. Their conference championship, coupled with a high ranking in the AP and Coaches polls, keeps them in the top five, and they are likely to secure the #4 seed if the top three teams maintain their positions.

Michigan Wolverines – Michigan’s 9‑2 record is not as strong as some of the others, but their two losses came against highly ranked teams. With a 43‑41 win over Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship and a powerful offense, they have the “strength‑of‑schedule” and “quality‑wins” metrics needed to keep them in the mix, especially if the committee places higher value on conference championship performance.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish – Notre Dame’s 9‑2 record, including a 48‑45 win over Alabama, gives them a high-quality win that the committee weighs heavily. While they did not win a conference championship, their independent status and consistent wins over ranked teams place them in the upper echelon of CFP contenders.

Texas Longhorns – Texas’ 8‑3 record and a 45‑23 victory over Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship show that they can win on the big stage. Their strength of schedule is solid, and their playoff chances hinge on a strong finish in the remaining regular‑season games and bowl matchups.

Teams That Could Slip Out

Oklahoma Sooners – Oklahoma’s 7‑4 record, despite a 41‑38 win over Texas in the Big 12 Championship, is a concern. The committee has placed less emphasis on wins against mid‑tier teams and more on overall performance. If Oklahoma loses another game, their ranking could drop below the top 12.

Oregon Ducks – Oregon’s 7‑4 record and a 35‑28 win over Washington in the Pac‑12 Championship leave them vulnerable. The Ducks’ offensive numbers are respectable, but their defense has struggled against high‑scoring opponents. A late‑season loss could push them out of playoff contention.

Oklahoma State Cowboys – Oklahoma State’s 6‑5 record and a 52‑48 win over Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship show they are on the bubble. The committee’s emphasis on conference championship performance could keep them out if the Cowboys cannot improve their overall record.

Arizona State Sun Devils – Arizona State’s 7‑4 record and a 46‑28 win over USC in the Pac‑12 Championship give them a chance to remain in the top 12, but their defensive inconsistencies and lower strength of schedule could hurt them in the final ranking.

Penn State Nittany Lions – Penn State’s 7‑4 record, including a 30‑28 win over Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship, is precarious. Their offensive production has been steady, but injuries and a less favorable strength of schedule could see them slide.

Kansas State Wildcats – Kansas State’s 7‑4 record and a 38‑31 win over Iowa State in the Big 12 Championship keep them in the conversation. However, their losses to ranked teams and a weak defensive record could cost them playoff eligibility.

What the CFP Committee Looks For

The CFP selection committee evaluates teams based on a blend of objective and subjective criteria:

1. Overall Record – A team’s win‑loss record remains the baseline metric.
2. Conference Championship Game – Winning the conference title often provides a major boost in the ranking.
3. Strength of Schedule – How difficult a team’s schedule is, including quality wins against top‑25 opponents.
4. Head‑to‑Head – Direct comparisons between teams, particularly when they have faced each other.
5. Injury Considerations – The impact of injuries on a team’s performance.
6. Performance in Key Games – How a team performs in high‑stakes contests such as conference championships and bowl games.

These factors are weighed in conjunction with the AP and Coaches Poll rankings, but the committee ultimately decides the final four.

Upcoming Games That Could Shift the Landscape

• SEC Championship – Georgia vs. Alabama – The winner will secure the #1 or #2 seed.
• Big Ten Championship – Michigan vs. Ohio State – A decisive win could push Michigan into the top four.
• Big 12 Championship – Texas vs. Oklahoma – The winner will be guaranteed a spot in the playoff.
• Pac‑12 Championship – Oregon vs. Washington – The victor will improve their standing in the top 12.

In addition, the final regular‑season games and bowl matchups will add a layer of complexity. A late‑season upset or a dominant bowl performance can significantly alter the CFP rankings.

Final Thoughts

While the top four teams appear clear—Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, and Clemson—the committee’s final ranking could still shift based on last‑minute performances. Teams on the bubble, such as Texas, Notre Dame, and Michigan, will have to capitalize on every opportunity. Meanwhile, Oklahoma, Oregon, and Oklahoma State must avoid additional losses or their playoff hopes will evaporate.

As the season nears its climax, every game matters. The CFP committee’s final poll will be released after the conference championship games, and it will decide which squads earn the right to compete for the national title. Fans and analysts alike will watch closely, knowing that a single win or loss could be the difference between a playoff berth and a season-ending exit.