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Sports and Competition
Source : (remove) : Paulick Report
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Equibase Analysis Lush Lips Thought Process Top Competitive Del Mar Oaks

Equibase Analysis: Can Lush Lips Thought Overcome Class Jump in Competitive Allowance Field?

In this detailed Equibase analysis, the focus is on an upcoming allowance optional claiming race at Belmont Park, where a field of eight fillies and mares are set to compete over a mile on the turf. The spotlight shines on Lush Lips Thought, a promising 4-year-old filly trained by Chad Brown, who is attempting to step up in class after a string of impressive performances in lower-level races. The article delves into her pedigree, recent form, and the challenges she faces against more seasoned rivals, providing a comprehensive breakdown of the race dynamics, pace scenarios, and potential betting value.

Lush Lips Thought enters this contest off a dominant victory in a maiden special weight at Saratoga last month, where she showcased her closing kick by rallying from mid-pack to win by three lengths. Her Equibase Speed Figure of 92 in that race marks a career high, indicating she's on an upward trajectory. Bred from the sire Thought Process out of the dam Lush Meadows, she inherits stamina from her dam's side, which excelled in turf routes. Trainer Chad Brown, with a stellar 28% win rate in turf allowances this year, has been patient with her development, opting for a turf campaign after initial dirt tries didn't pan out. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., who piloted her to that Saratoga win, retains the mount, adding confidence to her chances. However, the analysis cautions that this race represents a significant class hike; she'll face horses with graded stakes experience, and her lack of exposure to faster paces could be a vulnerability if the early fractions are hot.

The field is deep with talent, and the article breaks down key contenders starting with the morning-line favorite, Whispering Pines, a 5-year-old mare trained by Todd Pletcher. Coming off a runner-up finish in the Grade 3 Honey Fox Stakes at Gulfstream, Whispering Pines boasts consistent speed figures in the mid-90s and a tactical running style that allows her to sit just off the pace. Her jockey, John Velazquez, has a strong rapport with her, winning three of their last five pairings. The analysis highlights her affinity for Belmont's turf course, where she's undefeated in two starts, but notes a potential drawback: she can get rank early if pressured, which might lead to a fade in the stretch against a closer like Lush Lips Thought.

Another strong player is Elegant Stride, a European import making her U.S. debut for trainer Graham Motion. With a record of 4-2-1 from seven starts in England, including a Group 3 placing at Newmarket, she brings international class to the mix. Her Equibase projections suggest a speed figure around 95, adjusted for the transatlantic ship. The article praises her closing ability, evidenced by sectional times that show strong late pace figures, but warns of the adjustment period many imports face, such as adapting to American racing's faster early tempos and different track configurations. Jockey Javier Castellano, known for his turf prowess, gets the call, which could mitigate some risks.

On the pace front, Speedy Gonzalez emerges as the likely frontrunner. This 4-year-old filly, trained by Linda Rice, has wired fields in her last two allowance wins at Aqueduct, posting brisk fractions like :23.1 for the opening quarter. Her speed figures hover around 88-90, which might not hold up against classier foes, but she could steal the race if allowed an easy lead. The analysis uses Equibase's pace projector tool to forecast a moderate early pace, with Speedy Gonzalez setting fractions of :47.2 for the half-mile, potentially softening up the field for closers.

Other notable entrants include Midnight Muse, a consistent placer with a 3-for-5 record on Belmont turf, and Golden Echo, who drops in class after a poor showing in stakes company but has back class from a Grade 2 win last year. The article examines their trip notes: Midnight Muse benefited from a perfect rail-skimming journey in her last out, while Golden Echo was wide throughout, suggesting she could rebound with better luck.

Delving into the pace scenario, the piece employs Equibase's advanced metrics to predict how the race might unfold. With only one confirmed speed horse in Speedy Gonzalez, the early pace is projected as average, favoring mid-pack runners like Lush Lips Thought. Late pace figures are emphasized, with Lush Lips Thought's 38.4 final quarter in her last race standing out as elite. Track bias is also considered; Belmont's turf has shown a slight preference for inside paths this meet, which could benefit horses drawn in posts 1-4.

From a betting perspective, the analysis suggests Lush Lips Thought offers value at 5-1 morning-line odds, given her improving form and connections. It recommends exacta boxes pairing her with Whispering Pines and Elegant Stride, and cautions against overbetting the favorite if the odds shorten. Historical data from similar races at Belmont shows that horses stepping up from maiden wins succeed about 22% of the time when trained by top barns like Brown's.

The article also touches on broader trends in turf racing, noting how the influx of European horses has elevated competition in East Coast allowances, making races like this more unpredictable. It references Equibase's class par figures, where this field averages a 92, aligning with Lush Lips Thought's recent output, suggesting she's not outclassed.

In terms of potential upsets, the piece spotlights a longshot in Riverside Dream, at 15-1, who has sneaky form with improving workouts (bullet 4f in :47.2) and a new blinkers addition. Her trainer, a 20% winner with equipment changes, could spring a surprise if the pace collapses.

Overall, the analysis paints Lush Lips Thought as a filly with upside, capable of handling the class jump if she gets a clean trip. It emphasizes the importance of watching the tote board for overlays and using Equibase's tools like trip handicapping and speed figures for informed wagering. The race is positioned as a litmus test for Lush Lips Thought's graded stakes potential, with her performance here possibly propelling her to bigger spots like the upcoming Athenia Stakes.

Expanding on her training regimen, the article notes Brown's success with similar profiles—young turf fillies who've broken maiden impressively and then won allowances 35% of the time. Comparative data shows her speed figure progression mirrors that of past Brown stars like Sistercharlie, who followed a similar path to multiple Grade 1 wins. However, vulnerabilities are not glossed over: her inexperience in traffic-heavy fields could lead to trouble, as seen in her debut where she was blocked in the stretch.

The piece concludes by encouraging readers to review full past performances on Equibase.com, stressing that while data drives the analysis, intangibles like current form and track conditions on race day will ultimately decide the outcome. This thorough breakdown underscores why Lush Lips Thought is the horse to watch, blending statistical insights with narrative flair to engage racing enthusiasts. (Word count: 1,048)

Read the Full Paulick Report Article at:
[ https://sports.yahoo.com/article/equibase-analysis-lush-lips-thought-224022361.html ]