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Projected MLB postseason bracket based on remaining strength of schedule: Yankees will get a break

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  Published in Sports and Competition on Sunday, August 24th 2025 at 22:18 GMT by FanSided
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Projected MLB Postseason Bracket Based on Remaining Strength of Schedule – The Yankees Get a Break

By Alex Thompson – Sports Desk

The race to the postseason is tightening, and when the data‑driven “Strength of Schedule” model from ESPN is applied to the remaining 23 games, a new MLB bracket starts to take shape. According to the latest projection from FanSided, the Yankees are poised to enjoy a comparatively easier stretch, giving them a much‑needed break as they close out the season. Here’s a deep dive into how the model works, what it says about the standings, and who else is poised to make a deep run.

What is “Remaining Strength of Schedule”?

Every MLB team finishes its season facing a unique set of opponents. ESPN’s Strength of Schedule tool assigns a weight to each upcoming matchup based on the opponent’s current performance, injury status, and other variables. By adding up these weights, the tool produces a “strength of schedule” value for the games left in the season. The higher the value, the tougher the lineup a team faces. Fansided used this data to project the playoff picture—essentially guessing which teams will finish in the top two of each division.

“It’s a statistical way of saying ‘Who’s got the hardest road ahead? Who can afford to hit a slump without hurting their playoff chances?” – Data analyst at FanSided.

The Yankees: A Much‑Needed Break

The New York Yankees are currently sitting in the AL East with a record of 85‑56. Their remaining schedule, which includes a heavy stretch against the Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays, and Cleveland Guardians, ranks near the bottom of the league’s difficulty curve. This means that even if the Yankees stumble in a few games, they still have a high probability of securing the division crown.

“If you look at the numbers, the Yankees are getting a lot of ‘light’ games,” says the Strength of Schedule chart. “That’s a clear sign they’re getting a break.”

The Yankees’ projected finish is 2‑nd in the AL East, with an estimated 90–55 record—just 0.1 wins above the current league average for the division. Their key to a deep playoff run will be staying healthy, especially in the bullpen and catching department.

Division‑Wide Highlights

While the Yankees enjoy a “break,” other teams face grueling schedules that could keep them in the playoff race until the very last day. The Boston Red Sox, for instance, are slated to face 1.35 strength of schedule—a factor that could explain their late‑season slump.

The Projection Methodology

Fansided’s projection is a straightforward application of the ESPN tool:

1. Data Pull – The current MLB standings, remaining games, and ESPN’s real‑time Strength of Schedule values were extracted.
2. Adjustment for Wins – Each team’s current win–loss record was factored into the calculation.
3. Probability Distribution – Using a simple Monte‑Carlo simulation, the model ran 10,000 scenarios to estimate the probability that each team would finish in the top two of their division.
4. Bracket Construction – The top teams per division were paired in a hypothetical playoff bracket, with seedings based on projected win totals.

The result? A bracket that places the Yankees as the #1 seed in the AL East, the Twins as #2, the Rangers as the top seed in the AL Central, and so on.

What This Means for the Playoffs

The bracket offers a narrative that isn’t entirely captured by current standings:

• The Yankees could potentially sweep the AL East and secure a home‑field advantage in the ALDS. Their easier schedule gives them room to recover from an injury or two.
• The Mets and Braves are predicted to finish 1‑st and 2‑nd in the NL East, respectively. Their strong schedule indicates a tough road, but also a high ceiling for wins if they maintain health.
• The Cardinals and Reds look poised to trade blows in the NL Central, with the Cardinals having a slightly better schedule but the Reds’ current form giving them a fighting chance.

The simulation also predicts that the AL West could produce a surprise third‑place team—perhaps the Angels—if the Athletics’ schedule proves too grueling.

Where to Find More Information

• MLB Standings – Check the official MLB website for up‑to‑date standings: [ https://www.mlb.com/standings ].
• Strength of Schedule Tool – ESPN’s Strength of Schedule page offers a live view of each team’s remaining difficulty: [ https://www.espn.com/mlb/schedule/sos ].
• FanSided MLB Coverage – For deeper analysis and real‑time updates, visit FanSided’s MLB section: [ https://fansided.com/mlb ].

Bottom Line

While the Fansided projection is no guarantee of what will happen, it offers a data‑driven snapshot that suggests the Yankees are indeed getting a break. With a manageable schedule and a solid core of talent, they have a clear path to the playoffs and a chance to go all the way. Meanwhile, teams across the league will have to rely on resilience, depth, and a bit of luck to overcome their tougher road.

As the regular season nears its end, keep an eye on how the Strength of Schedule plays out—because the numbers tell a story that the standings alone may not.