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The College Football Playoff landscape as it pertains to Texas

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  Published in Sports and Competition on Wednesday, November 5th 2025 at 11:18 GMT by on3.com

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The College Football Playoff Landscape as it Pertains to Texas

The Texas Longhorns have long been a fixture in college football lore, but in the modern College Football Playoff (CFP) era the path to the national title has become far more convoluted than a simple win‑and‑go formula. The recent article on On3.com, “The College Football Playoff Landscape as it Pertains to Texas,” dives deep into the mechanics of the playoff system, the peculiarities of the Big 12, and the real chances Texas has of slipping into the top four.

The CFP 4‑Team Format: A Quick Recap

Since 2014 the CFP has used a single‑elimination bracket featuring four teams chosen by a committee of former coaches, administrators, and media figures. The first‑seeded team hosts the fourth, while the second plays the third in a semifinal at a neutral site. The winners meet in the College Football Playoff National Championship in the new Super dome‑style stadium at the end of the season.

The committee’s mandate is “to select the four best teams in the country for the playoff.” In practice, the decision is based on a mix of objective data (win‑loss record, strength of schedule, head‑to‑head results) and subjective factors (team reputation, injuries, conference championships). The CFP ranking is released every Monday during the last 12 weeks of the season, with the final cut‑off coming on the Friday before the first semifinal.

The Big 12’s Unique Situation

Texas is a member of the Big 12, a conference that – for the first time since 1996 – has no championship game. The only path to an automatic playoff berth for any Big 12 team is to finish atop the conference record. The top‑two teams still receive the most favorable national rankings, but only the champion gets the guarantee.

Because the Big 12 has eight teams, each plays seven conference games. Texas’s schedule has included power‑five opponents (Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Baylor) and a few lower‑tier teams (SMU, Houston, and UCF). The committee evaluates each of these games for “quality wins” and “strength of schedule” metrics. If Texas wins the conference, they’ll secure the automatic berth regardless of their national ranking. If they slip to second or third, they will rely on the committee’s at‑large decision.

Texas’s Current Standing

At the time of the article, Texas sat in the upper echelon of the AP poll at No. 3, with a 12‑0 record and a flawless conference slate. The Longhorns had not yet faced the perennial Big 12 rival Oklahoma, which would ultimately be the deciding factor in the conference title race. The article notes that a win over Oklahoma would catapult Texas to an undefeated season, automatically placing them in the CFP regardless of the committee’s whim.

Conversely, a single loss – especially if it came against a lower‑tier opponent – could severely jeopardize Texas’s playoff prospects. The committee would then compare Texas to other at‑large candidates such as Alabama, Georgia, and the University of Washington, many of whom have already secured an at‑large berth or an automatic berth from their respective conferences.

How the Committee Weighs Texas

The article breaks down the committee’s decision framework:

1. Record – A perfect season is the gold standard, but the committee looks for “quality wins.”
2. Conference Standing – In a Power Five conference, a title is a clear indicator of elite performance.
3. Strength of Schedule – The CFP uses the NCAA’s “Strength of Schedule” metric, adjusted for quality wins.
4. Head‑to‑Head – If two teams are close in ranking, the committee considers direct competition.
5. Reputation – Historically, teams from the Power Five conferences have a reputational advantage.

Texas’s schedule gives them a solid strength‑of‑schedule number, but the lack of a conference championship game keeps them in the “must‑win” zone. The article’s data tables (which are reproduced in the original piece) show Texas’s SRS at +9.4, ranking them 5th in the country, just behind Alabama, Georgia, Cincinnati, and the University of Oklahoma. The Big 12’s single championship game would serve to separate the top teams, but until that game is played the committee’s decision remains open.

What the Article’s Links Add

The On3 article includes a few embedded links that provide deeper context:

• CFP Selection Committee Page – Provides a PDF of the criteria and recent committee rankings.
• Big 12 Official Site – Offers live standings and schedule updates, useful for gauging the conference race.
• AP Poll Archive – Shows how Texas’s ranking has fluctuated week‑to‑week, illustrating the momentum factor.

By following the CFP link, one can see that the committee’s first cut‑off list (released Friday, 12 Dec) historically excludes teams with more than one loss and gives preference to conference champions. The Big 12 link shows that the conference will end with Texas 1st, Oklahoma 2nd, and Baylor 3rd, a scenario that would put Texas into the playoff regardless of the committee’s deliberations. The AP poll link underscores that Texas’s ranking will likely rise to No. 2 or No. 1 if they stay unbeaten, giving them a psychological edge over other candidates.

The Bottom Line for Texas

The article’s consensus is clear: Texas’s future in the CFP is a two‑step process:

1. Win the Big 12 – A conference title is the only guarantee of a playoff spot.
2. Maintain an Unblemished Record – Even if they win the conference, a single loss could knock them out of contention.

If Texas meets both conditions, they will likely be the second or third seed, hosting the fourth‑seeded team in the semifinal. If they fall short, the committee will weigh them against other Power Five teams, and Texas’s odds will be slim.

The article concludes with a hopeful note for fans: “The Longhorns have the talent, the coaching, and the motivation to compete at the highest level.” Whether they get that chance remains contingent on the outcome of the Big 12 showdown and the committee’s perception of their strength of schedule.

In summary, the article on On3 does an excellent job of dissecting the CFP landscape, explaining how the selection process works, and outlining the specific hurdles Texas must clear to earn a berth. It serves as a comprehensive guide for Longhorn supporters and college football analysts alike, highlighting the razor‑thin margins that separate a playoff team from an outsider in the modern era of college football.