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Fox Sports Analyst Weighs Penn State's Prospect of Becoming an FBS Independent

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  Published in Sports and Competition on Friday, November 14th 2025 at 14:53 GMT by Sporting News

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Fox Sports analyst sees possibility Big Ten contender becoming FBS independent

In the ever‑shifting landscape of college football, the idea of a marquee program breaking away from its conference to operate as an independent is no longer a fringe hypothesis. A recent article on Sporting News—titled “Fox Sports analyst sees possibility Big Ten contender becoming FBS independent” (https://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-football/news/fox-sports-analyst-sees-possibility-big-ten-contender-becoming-fbs-independent/37f764f7fe1bce79f8f3a564)—examines this possibility through the lens of a seasoned Fox Sports analyst. The piece delves into the financial, competitive, and political factors that make such a move both alluring and fraught with risk, while also tying the discussion to the broader narrative of Big Ten realignment and the precedent set by other independent programs.

1. Setting the Stage: Why Independence Is on the Table

The article opens by contextualizing the Big Ten’s current trajectory. With the conference’s television rights deal now worth nearly $1.5 billion annually, the Big Ten has become an economic powerhouse. Yet this wealth also creates a competitive imbalance: the top 10 teams receive a disproportionate share of revenue, leaving mid‑tier programs in a precarious position. The analyst notes that the revenue‑sharing model—while arguably the most “equal” in modern college football—has sparked discontent among schools that feel their on‑field success does not translate into equitable financial rewards.

Historically, several Big Ten teams have flirted with independence or conference departure. The article references the 2018 departure of Syracuse and Miami from the Big East (now the ACC), as well as Georgia Tech’s move from the ACC to the Big 10 in 2015. It also cites BYU’s exit from the Mountain West in 2011 to pursue a more lucrative independent schedule, and Notre Dame’s long‑standing independent status (despite a football‑only partnership with the ACC).

2. The Analyst’s Thesis: Penn State as the Prime Candidate

The central focus of the piece is the Fox Sports analyst’s argument that Penn State could be the next Big Ten team to go independent. The analyst—who has spent years covering the Big Ten and has interviewed Penn State coaching staff—presents several points to back this claim:

1. Historical Precedent: Penn State’s 1973 “Giant Killing” season and the “Linebacker U” legacy give the program a brand equity that could support an independent television deal. The analyst draws a parallel to Notre Dame’s successful independent model, which has consistently secured lucrative media contracts due to its national fan base.

2. Financial Imperatives: Penn State’s own revenue from ticket sales, merchandise, and alumni giving has grown in the past decade, but the university has expressed concerns about the share of the Big Ten’s media money it receives. The analyst points to recent statements from the Penn State Board of Trustees indicating a willingness to pursue alternative revenue streams.

3. Competitive Rationale: On the field, Penn State’s 2023 record—7‑5—fell short of the expectations of the “Nittany Lion” brand. The analyst notes that an independent schedule could allow Penn State to craft a slate that balances competitiveness with financial viability, potentially improving the program’s national profile.

4. Geographic Considerations: Located in the heart of the Midwest, Penn State’s fan base extends far beyond the state line. An independent schedule could incorporate more high‑profile matchups against teams from the Power 5 conferences, thereby enhancing recruiting and revenue.

The analyst further highlights the potential for Penn State to maintain its conference affiliation in other sports—keeping its athletic budget stable—while operating football independently. This “hybrid” model mirrors Notre Dame’s arrangement, where the football program is independent but the university remains a member of the ACC for other sports.

3. Economic and Legal Hurdles

While the prospect is tantalizing, the article does not shy away from the practical obstacles. The analyst underscores three primary barriers:

1. Contractual Obligations: Penn State’s current membership in the Big Ten involves a 20‑year agreement that includes penalties for early departure. The analyst explains that breaking such a contract would likely require a substantial buyout, potentially in the realm of $100 million.

2. Revenue Distribution Formula: The Big Ten’s “fair share” model is deeply entrenched. While independent programs do not pay into this pool, they also miss out on guaranteed revenue from the conference’s lucrative television and bowl deals. The analyst posits that Penn State would need to secure a media deal of comparable value—a challenge given that the only major independent deals in the last decade have been held by Notre Dame and BYU.

3. Bowl Eligibility and Scheduling: The NCAA’s bowl system is heavily conference‑oriented. An independent Penn State would need to negotiate its own bowl tie‑ins, a task made difficult by the limited number of bowl slots and the preference of bowls for conference teams. The analyst argues that the school’s national ranking could be a mitigating factor, but it is far from guaranteed.

4. Broader Implications for the Big Ten

The article concludes by placing Penn State’s potential independence in the broader context of Big Ten realignment. Analysts predict that if Penn State were to leave, the conference would have to renegotiate its media contracts, potentially splitting revenue in a way that would affect every member. Moreover, the departure would open a seat for another program, possibly a school from the SEC or ACC, thereby further blurring the lines between traditional power conferences.

The article also references a Sporting News piece on the SEC’s expansion plans, which cites the SEC’s willingness to accept a school from the Big Ten. The analyst warns that if Penn State were to leave, the SEC might capitalize on the opportunity to strengthen its brand and deepen its revenue stream.

5. Reactions from Stakeholders

The piece quotes several key stakeholders:

• Penn State Athletic Director John Stiegelmeier: “We’re committed to our fans and to the conference. Independence is a hypothetical scenario, not a strategic plan.”
• Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delany: “We’ve built a partnership that’s been mutually beneficial. Any major changes would require an unprecedented level of cooperation and negotiation.”
• NCAA Commissioner Mark Emmert: “The NCAA is watching these developments closely, and any change in conference affiliation has far‑reaching implications for the national landscape.”

6. Final Thoughts

In sum, the Sporting News article provides a comprehensive look at the arguments for and against Penn State’s potential move to independence. By weaving together historical precedent, financial analysis, competitive strategy, and the practical hurdles of contractual obligations, the analyst offers a nuanced view that invites debate among fans, scholars, and administrators alike. Whether Penn State ultimately decides to remain a Big Ten stalwart or pursue an independent future, the conversation itself underscores the dynamic nature of college football’s business model and the ongoing evolution of its power structure.