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Fantasy Football: Avoid These Overvalued Players

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  Published in Sports and Competition on Thursday, March 19th 2026 at 9:26 GMT by pff.com
      Locale: UNITED STATES

The Core Problem: ADP vs. Projected Value

The players outlined below aren't necessarily bad football players. The issue lies in the price - their current ADP. Spending a premium pick on a player projected to significantly underperform their draft slot will create a drag on your team, hindering your chances of success. We're focusing on the discrepancy between where players are being drafted and where data suggests they should be drafted. These recommendations are current as of March 19th, 2026, and ADPs are subject to change. Continuous monitoring is vital.

Players to Fade on Underdog Fantasy (2026)

1. Alexander Mattison, RB, Minnesota Vikings (ADP: 37.1, PFF Projected Rank: RB16)

The departure of Dalvin Cook has undeniably thrust Mattison into the lead back role in Minnesota. However, the leap from reliable backup to bell-cow running back is significant. While the volume will be there, expecting a comparable fantasy output to Cook is unrealistic. The Vikings' offensive scheme may evolve to reduce reliance on a single workhorse, and Mattison's explosiveness doesn't match Cook's peak. Drafting him in the late first/early second round feels like a considerable risk, considering more consistent and dynamic running backs are often available.

2. Christian Watson, WR, Green Bay Packers (ADP: 71.0, PFF Projected Rank: WR39)

Watson flashed potential as a rookie, particularly with a few explosive plays. But a small sample size shouldn't dictate a high ADP. The Packers are transitioning into a post-Aaron Rodgers era, and Jordan Love's development remains a major question mark. The offense is likely to be more run-centric, limiting Watson's opportunities. While he possesses a tantalizing ceiling, the floor is considerably lower than his current draft price suggests.

3. Skyy Moore, WR, Kansas City Chiefs (ADP: 109.5, PFF Projected Rank: WR65)

The hope surrounding Moore is understandable - he's a receiver on the Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs. However, Kansas City is a crowded receiver room with established veterans and emerging talent. Moore has yet to consistently earn Mahomes' trust, and the target share is unlikely to materialize to the extent needed to justify his mid-round ADP.

4. Rachaad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (ADP: 59.3, PFF Projected Rank: RB26)

White is poised to handle a substantial workload in Tampa Bay, which makes him appealing on the surface. However, volume doesn't always equate to fantasy success. White lacks the explosive running ability to consistently break tackles and generate significant yardage. He's a competent pass-catcher, but not a difference-maker.

5. Quentin Johnston, WR, Los Angeles Chargers (ADP: 97.9, PFF Projected Rank: WR55)

Johnston is a highly touted rookie with enticing physical tools, but raw potential doesn't guarantee immediate production. He's a developing receiver with concerns about his hands and route running. The Chargers' offense, while potent, already features established receiving options. His ADP seems to bake in future potential at the expense of current expected value.

6. D'Andre Swift, RB, Philadelphia Eagles (ADP: 45.4, PFF Projected Rank: RB18)

Swift is a talented runner and receiver, but his injury history is a significant red flag. Joining a crowded Eagles backfield further complicates his outlook. While the Eagles' offense is a fantasy goldmine, the touches will likely be divided, limiting Swift's upside.

7. Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints (ADP: 132.3, PFF Projected Rank: WR51)

The former star receiver has been plagued by injuries in recent years, and his decline has been stark. While a return to form is possible, relying on nostalgia is a dangerous strategy in fantasy football. His ADP is likely fueled by memories of past success, rather than a realistic assessment of his current abilities.

Draft Strategy: Value Over Hype

The key takeaway isn't to completely avoid these players. Instead, be mindful of their ADP and be prepared to pivot if they are drafted before their projected value suggests. Focus on identifying players who are falling below their projected ranking, allowing you to secure potential steals and build a more robust fantasy team on Underdog Fantasy.