Caleb Williams: Why Drafting Him Isn't Crazy for Fantasy Football

Published in Sports and Competition on Saturday, August 9th 2025 at 11:50 GMT by The Sporting News
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Why It Isn't Crazy to Draft Caleb Williams as a Top Fantasy QB in 2024

In the ever-evolving landscape of fantasy football, where bold picks can make or break a season, there's a growing buzz around Chicago Bears rookie quarterback Caleb Williams. As the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, Williams enters the league with sky-high expectations, and for fantasy managers, the question looms: Is it insane to target him as a top-tier quarterback right out of the gate? The short answer? Not at all. In fact, there's a compelling case to be made that Williams could deliver immediate, league-winning value, potentially rivaling the rookie impacts we've seen from stars like C.J. Stroud or even Justin Herbert. Let's dive into the reasons why drafting Williams in the mid-to-late rounds—or even earlier for the bold—might be one of the smartest moves you make this year.

First and foremost, consider the offensive ecosystem Williams is stepping into. The Bears have undergone a dramatic overhaul, transforming from a run-heavy, defensively oriented squad into a potential aerial powerhouse. Gone are the days of Justin Fields' inconsistent passing; in comes a quarterback with elite arm talent, mobility, and poise under pressure. Williams inherits a receiving corps that's arguably the best any rookie QB has ever had. DJ Moore, fresh off a career year with over 1,300 yards and eight touchdowns, provides a proven WR1. Keenan Allen, acquired via trade from the Chargers, brings veteran savvy and route-running precision, having consistently posted 1,000-yard seasons when healthy. Then there's Rome Odunze, the ninth overall pick in the draft, a big-bodied, athletic freak who dominated at Washington with his contested-catch ability and yards-after-catch prowess. Add in tight end Cole Kmet, who's emerged as a reliable red-zone threat, and running back D'Andre Swift, who can catch passes out of the backfield, and you've got a supporting cast that screams "fantasy upside."

But it's not just the weapons; it's the scheme. New offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, poached from the Seahawks, has a track record of maximizing quarterback potential. Under Waldron, Geno Smith resurrected his career, posting back-to-back seasons with over 4,000 passing yards and 30 touchdowns. Waldron's system emphasizes play-action, quick reads, and designed runs—elements that play perfectly to Williams' strengths. Williams isn't just a pocket passer; he's a dual-threat dynamo who rushed for over 300 yards and multiple scores in college at USC. In fantasy terms, that mobility translates to rushing yards and touchdowns, a la Lamar Jackson or Jalen Hurts, boosting his floor and ceiling. Projections suggest Williams could easily eclipse 300 rushing yards as a rookie, adding a valuable dimension that pure passers like Joe Burrow lack.

Skeptics might point to historical precedents: Rookie quarterbacks often struggle, right? Think Trevor Lawrence's underwhelming debut or Bryce Young's rocky 2023. But Williams isn't your average rookie. His college tape is a highlight reel of off-platform throws, improvisational magic, and pinpoint accuracy. At USC, he threw for over 4,500 yards and 42 touchdowns in his Heisman-winning season, showcasing an ability to elevate mediocre teams. Unlike Lawrence, who joined a dysfunctional Jaguars squad, or Young, hampered by a porous Panthers offensive line, Williams benefits from a Bears unit that's invested heavily in protection. Chicago's O-line, bolstered by additions like center Ryan Bates and improved play from Teven Jenkins, ranked in the top half of the league in pass-blocking efficiency last year. This setup minimizes the typical rookie pitfalls like excessive sacks or turnovers.

Moreover, the Bears' schedule plays into Williams' hands. Early-season matchups against teams like the Titans, Texans, and Colts—defenses that were middling against the pass in 2023—offer opportunities for big stat lines right out of the gate. By midseason, as Williams acclimates, games against NFC North rivals like the Packers and Vikings could turn into shootouts, especially with Chicago's defense still a work in progress. Fantasy experts are already projecting Williams for around 4,000 passing yards, 25-30 touchdowns, and 400 rushing yards—numbers that would place him squarely in the QB8 to QB12 range, ahead of veterans like Jared Goff or Geno Smith.

Of course, no pick is without risk. Williams could face the classic rookie wall, or injuries to key receivers might derail the offense. The Bears' commitment to a balanced attack, with Swift and Khalil Herbert in the backfield, might cap his passing volume compared to gunslingers like Patrick Mahomes. But here's where the "not crazy" part shines: His average draft position (ADP) is currently in the QB12-15 range, meaning you can snag him in rounds 8-10 without reaching. That's tremendous value for a player with top-5 upside. Compare that to drafting a safer but lower-ceiling option like Matthew Stafford or Trevor Lawrence earlier—why settle when Williams offers the tantalizing possibility of being this year's Stroud, who finished as a top-10 QB as a rookie?

Digging deeper into analytics, advanced metrics back this optimism. Williams' college completion percentage over expected (CPOE) was among the highest in his class, indicating his accuracy isn't fluky. Pro Football Focus graded him as the top quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck, praising his ability to manipulate defenses with his eyes and extend plays. In fantasy simulations, models from sites like FantasyPros and ESPN show Williams with a 20-25% chance of finishing as a top-5 QB, far higher than peers like Jayden Daniels or J.J. McCarthy, who land in less favorable situations.

Beyond the numbers, there's an intangible factor: Williams' pedigree and mentality. As the consensus top pick, he's been groomed for stardom, drawing comparisons to Aaron Rodgers for his arm angles and creativity. Bears GM Ryan Poles has publicly committed to building around him, signaling a long-term investment that should translate to aggressive play-calling. Fantasy history is littered with rookie QBs who exploded—Cam Newton in 2011 with over 4,000 passing yards and 700 rushing, or Kyler Murray's debut with 29 total TDs. Williams has the tools to join that elite club.

In conclusion, while caution is warranted with any rookie, the confluence of talent, supporting cast, coaching, and opportunity makes drafting Caleb Williams a calculated risk worth taking. It's not crazy—it's savvy. In a fantasy world where upside wins championships, Williams represents the kind of high-reward pick that could propel your team to glory. So, when your draft rolls around, don't shy away; embrace the potential and let Williams lead your squad into the playoffs. (Word count: 928)

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Caleb Williams: Why Drafting Him Isn't Crazy for Fantasy Football

Why It Isn't Crazy to Draft Caleb Williams as a Top Fantasy QB in 2024