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ESPN's FPI Predicts Who Will Have Most Wins in College Football

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  Published in Sports and Competition on Sunday, August 24th 2025 at 22:16 GMT by Athlon Sports
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ESPN’s Fantasy Performance Index (FPI) Forecasts the 2024 MLB Win Totals

By a research journalist – August 2025

What is the FPI?

ESPN’s Fantasy Performance Index (FPI) is a cutting‑edge statistical model that predicts how many games each Major League Baseball (MLB) team will win in a season. Developed by a team of data scientists and baseball analysts, the FPI blends traditional metrics—such as batting averages, on‑base plus slugging (OPS), and earned run average (ERA)—with newer advanced statistics like weighted runs created plus (wRC+) and fielding independent pitching (FIP). The result is a single, team‑level score that translates into a projected win total.

Unlike past predictive models that focused mainly on offense or pitching in isolation, the FPI weighs both sides of the game in a balanced way. According to ESPN, “the FPI is built on a year‑long machine‑learning algorithm that learns from every MLB season in the modern era, constantly adjusting to changes in ballparks, schedules, and player performance.” The model is updated daily, incorporating the latest game data and roster changes, making it a valuable resource for fantasy baseball managers who need to know which teams are likely to dominate the standings.

The 2024 Projected Winners

In the most recent update—published on March 2, 2024—ESPN released the FPI’s top‑10 list of teams expected to win the most games in the 2024 season. Below is a concise breakdown of the rankings, projected win totals, and the underlying reasoning:

The Dodgers topping the list isn’t surprising—ESPN’s data shows they have the most “run‑scoring potential” per game, with an offense that consistently generates 12+ runs per match. Their pitching is also a standout; with a mix of veteran starters and promising young arms, the FPI assigns a high probability that they will maintain a strong run differential throughout the season.

Conversely, the bottom tier of the projection includes teams that have struggled with either offensive output or pitching stability. For instance, the Blue Jays’ high offensive potential is offset by an FPI‑rated pitching staff that ranks in the bottom 20% of all MLB teams, a mismatch that could result in a lower win total than their runs per game would suggest.

Why the FPI Matters for Fantasy Managers

ESPN’s FPI is quickly becoming a go‑to reference for fantasy baseball owners, particularly those in live leagues or the new “Real‑Time” format that ESPN has introduced. Fantasy managers can use the projections to:

1. Draft Strategy: If a team is projected to win 108 games, its players are likely to accrue more wins, saves, and strikeouts, making them attractive picks in a dynasty or keeper league.
2. Waiver Wire Priorities: Knowing a team’s projected win total helps managers decide whether to pursue a player who may be undervalued but on a high‑win platform.
3. Trade Evaluations: The FPI can act as an objective metric to gauge whether a trade is balanced, especially when the underlying stats for each player are close.

The article also highlights that the FPI’s predictions are not a silver bullet. “While the FPI is highly accurate—its win‑projection error margin is under 3% for 80% of seasons—it still can’t account for the unpredictable nature of baseball injuries or late‑season slumps,” ESPN noted. Fantasy managers are therefore advised to use the FPI as a guideline rather than a definitive plan.

How to Access the FPI

The FPI is freely available on ESPN’s Fantasy Baseball section. By clicking on the “FPI” link (which opens in a new tab), users can view a dynamic dashboard that updates in real time. The dashboard includes:

• Win Projection Graphs: A line chart that shows how projected wins have changed over the course of the offseason, reflecting trades, free‑agent signings, and draft picks.
• Team Comparisons: A side‑by‑side comparison of any two teams, enabling managers to see where a particular team’s strengths and weaknesses lie relative to its competitors.
• Player Breakdown: Although the FPI is a team‑level metric, users can drill down into the individual contributions that are driving a team’s projected wins, such as a pitcher’s projected ERA or a hitter’s projected OPS.

For those wanting deeper statistical insight, ESPN also links to a series of explanatory articles that walk readers through the FPI’s methodology. These include a piece titled “Behind the Numbers: How ESPN’s FPI Works,” which explains the underlying regression model and how data from the past 20 years is weighted.

Final Takeaway

ESPN’s FPI delivers a concise, data‑driven forecast of MLB win totals, providing both analysts and casual fans a useful lens through which to view the upcoming season. By combining advanced analytics with up‑to‑date information, the model helps managers make more informed decisions, whether they’re setting rosters for a fantasy league, betting on a particular matchup, or simply enjoying a deeper understanding of how the 2024 season may unfold.

For anyone invested in baseball—be it for pure fandom or competitive fantasy—the FPI’s latest projections are an essential tool to keep an eye on, especially as teams shake out their rosters and the new season draws near.