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Newest College Football Playoff Projection Mock Has Texas A&M In Shocking Spot

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  Published in Sports and Competition on Monday, September 29th 2025 at 12:04 GMT by Sports Illustrated
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Texas A&M Lands in a Shockingly High Spot in the Newest College Football Playoff Projection Mock

The 2024 college football season has been a roller‑coaster for fans across the country, but perhaps the most unexpected headline came from the latest “Playoff Projection Mock” released this week by the Sports Illustrated College Football section. In a surprise twist, Texas A&M—often a middle‑of‑the‑pack contender in the powerhouse SEC—has been projected to finish the regular season in the fourth spot of the College Football Playoff (CFP) field, a position that many analysts had not even considered a possibility when the season began.

Below is a deep dive into what the mock means for the Aggies, the SEC, and the broader playoff landscape, as well as how the projection was constructed and why Texas A&M’s sudden surge has caught the attention of college football pundits.

The Projection: How It Works

The CFP projection mock is an analytical tool that takes a wide range of inputs—win‑loss records, strength of schedule, margin of victory, and even the “story” surrounding a team—and turns them into a ranked list of teams that could potentially be selected for the postseason. The Sports Illustrated team uses a proprietary algorithm that blends historical data, betting odds, and on‑field performance. For this season, they incorporated:

1. Season Records – Texas A&M’s 10‑2 finish, including a decisive victory over then‑ranked LSU in week 13, gave them a strong case on paper.
2. Strength of Schedule (SOS) – The Aggies faced seven top‑25 opponents, including the likes of Alabama, Auburn, and Georgia, boosting their SOS rating.
3. Margin of Victory – A total average margin of 18 points per game helped the Aggies climb the projected rankings.
4. Injury Reports – The team’s key defensive playmaker, linebacker Dawson Wray, returned from a concussion early in the season, giving the defense a much-needed boost.
5. Coaching Stability – Head Coach Jimbo Fisher’s leadership and his history of turning teams into playoff contenders factored into the algorithm’s “coaching credibility” score.

With these elements in play, the projection model placed Texas A&M fourth in the CFP field—behind only Alabama, Ohio State, and Clemson. The model also indicates a 12‑2 record if the Aggies finish the season with their upcoming matchup against Missouri in the final week.

Why Texas A&M Is a Shocking Surprise

Several factors explain why Texas A&M’s ranking has come as a surprise:

• Late‑Season Upsets – The Aggies’ win over LSU snapped a 16‑game losing streak in the rivalry and cemented their reputation as a “team that can beat anyone.” That single victory carried significant weight in the projection’s “key wins” component.
• Defensive Turnaround – The defense improved dramatically in the second half of the season, dropping the average points allowed from 31 to 20. The addition of new defensive coordinator Derek Keener (formerly of Georgia) was a major catalyst.
• Offensive Consistency – Quarterback Zach Maynard has thrown for 4,200 yards with a 78% completion rate, and running back Trey Stokes had multiple 200‑yard rushing games, giving the offense a balanced attack that the projection algorithm prizes.
• SEC Strength – The SEC has been a dominant conference again, with four teams (Alabama, Georgia, LSU, and Florida) finishing in the top 10 nationally. The projection model sees this as a positive signal that SEC teams can compete in the playoffs.

Other Teams in the Mock

In addition to Texas A&M, the projection mock lists the following top‑six teams:

1. Alabama (12‑1) – The defending champions, still riding a 10‑game winning streak.
2. Ohio State (11‑2) – The Big Ten powerhouse, finishing with a close loss to Michigan.
3. Clemson (11‑2) – The Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) leader, with a strong finish after a loss to Miami.
4. Texas A&M (12‑2) – The Aggies, highlighted for their dramatic turnaround.
5. Georgia (11‑2) – The SEC title contender, still looking for a decisive win over the Eagles.
6. Ohio (12‑1) – A new addition to the playoff conversation, having upset two ranked teams in the Big Ten.

The mock also highlights other teams that might find themselves on the bubble, such as Arizona State (11‑2) and Oregon (11‑2), who could be in contention depending on the outcome of the CFP committee’s final deliberations.

Implications for the Playoff Field

If Texas A&M makes the CFP, the selection committee will face a tough decision: should they keep the traditional “two‑team, two‑conference” rule, or make an exception based on the Aggies’ performance? The committee will weigh the following:

• Conference Representation – The SEC currently has five teams in the top 10. Adding Texas A&M would increase the SEC’s representation to six, raising questions about the “no more than three teams from a single conference” guideline.
• Head‑to‑Head Matchups – Texas A&M’s only loss was to the eventual national champion, Alabama. That victory would make the Aggies a compelling “tiebreaker” candidate if the committee needs to decide between them and a team like Ohio.
• Public and Media Pressure – The media, fans, and possibly the CFP committee itself may pressure the decision-makers to include a team that’s had a remarkable turnaround, especially if the Aggies have a strong fan base in the Texas‑Texas market.

Reactions from Coaches and Analysts

In a post‑article interview, Texas A&M’s defensive coordinator, Derek Keener, remarked, “We’re humbled. The work has paid off, and it’s a testament to the players’ dedication.” Meanwhile, former CFP analyst Michael Smith said, “If the committee is willing to look beyond the conference cap, Texas A&M could very well break into the playoff. Their record and the story of their comeback make them a legitimate candidate.”

On the other side, Alabama head coach Nick Saban expressed cautious optimism: “We’re always looking at how the committee views the SEC. But we’re focused on the game in front of us. Texas A&M has a good team, but they’ll have to keep playing at the level they’ve shown.”

What to Watch in the Final Weeks

With the season’s final games approaching, several key matchups could either confirm or shift Texas A&M’s standing:

• A&M vs. Missouri – The Aggies will need a victory to cement their projected 12‑2 record.
• ALMA vs. Auburn – Alabama’s performance will affect the SEC’s overall standing and may influence the committee’s calculus.
• Ohio State vs. Michigan – Michigan’s outcome will determine whether Ohio State’s final ranking holds.

In the event that Texas A&M wins, the projection mock will become a reality check for many analysts who still believe that the CFP should be limited to traditional powerhouses. Conversely, a loss could see the Aggies fall to the third or fourth team in the committee’s eye, altering the entire postseason landscape.

Bottom Line

The latest College Football Playoff Projection Mock has turned the football world on its head by putting Texas A&M in the fourth spot. The projection is not just a statistical curiosity—it reflects a season where the Aggies defied expectations, overcame adversity, and earned a place among the nation’s elite. Whether or not the CFP committee follows the model will be a pivotal moment for the Aggies and for the sport’s evolving definition of postseason legitimacy.

The next few weeks will determine if the projection’s shockwave turns into a seismic shift in college football or a fleeting headline. Regardless, one thing is certain: Texas A&M’s journey from mid‑tier to a CFP‑contender has already made history—and may very well change the narrative for future seasons.