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Kalshi's CEO Tarek Mansour Trains a Regulated Exchange to Compete with Crypto-First Polymarket
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Published in Sports and Competition on Tuesday, December 9th 2025 at 0:48 GMT by Business Insider- 🞛 This publication is a summary or evaluation of another publication
- 🞛 This publication contains editorial commentary or bias from the source
Kalshi’s CEO Tarek Mansour and the Rising Storm of Prediction‑Market Rivalry
Business Insider, December 2025
In a market that is moving from the unregulated grey‑area of online sportsbooks to the tightly‑regulated world of U.S. exchange‑style betting, one player has made headlines: Kalshi, a “regulated exchange for event contracts” founded by former venture‑capitalist and ex‑NFL‑scouting‑expert Tarek Mansour. According to Business Insider’s December‑2025 feature, Mansour’s ambitions for Kalshi are clear: to put the U.S. market back on a level playing field where the same rules that govern equities and futures also apply to sports, politics and weather predictions. But the company’s path to that goal is being shaped – and complicated – by a new competitor that is already carving out a niche: Polymarket.
A new regulator‑friendly exchange
Kalshi was founded in 2022 and received a “Regulated Markets” licence from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in 2023, allowing it to offer “event contracts” that pay out based on the outcome of a wide array of public events. Unlike traditional sportsbooks that operate as “betting shops,” Kalshi’s platform is structured as an exchange: users can buy and sell contracts that pay off if, say, “the 2024 election will be won by the Democratic candidate” or “Super Bowl 60 will end with a touchdown by Tom Brady.” Because it’s a regulated exchange, all trades are subject to the same capital‑adequacy, clearing‑house and anti‑money‑laundering (AML) requirements that apply to futures and options.
In the article, Mansour explains that this structure offers two key advantages:
- Transparency – Prices are set by a true market supply‑and‑demand mechanism, and traders can see the full depth of the order book at any time.
- Security – All positions are settled on‑chain by the exchange’s own smart‑contract‑based clearing house, which prevents fraud or manipulation.
Mansour’s background as a former executive at the venture‑capital firm Sovereign Ventures and his long‑time experience in risk‑management have helped him build Kalshi’s compliance engine. He has repeatedly said that he sees the company as “the bridge between speculative investing and responsible risk‑taking.”
Polymarket’s blockchain‑first approach
Polymarket launched in late 2021 as a decentralized prediction‑market platform built on the Ethereum blockchain. It uses native tokens (POLY) as collateral for contracts, and each user must lock up a certain amount of ETH or wrapped tokens before they can trade. The platform has rapidly become popular among “crypto‑hungry” traders who enjoy the anonymity and the ability to trade “dark” contracts – that is, wagers on events that would be illegal or banned on a regulated exchange.
Business Insider notes that Polymarket’s biggest selling point is its speed and low cost of settlement. A trade that takes minutes on Kalshi can be executed in a few seconds on Polymarket, thanks to the underlying blockchain layer. The company also has a built‑in “reputation score” that incentivizes accurate predictions – traders earn more tokens if their predictions hit and can lose tokens if they miss.
The article also highlights how Polymarket has taken a “rivalry‑with‑Kalshi” marketing stance in some of its community updates, using the phrase “the future of betting is already here.” While Kalshi focuses on regulatory compliance, Polymarket pushes a more libertarian narrative that “you don’t need regulators to be honest.” This difference is at the heart of the rivalry.
The Brady‑Manning bet: a litmus test
To illustrate the differences in market philosophy, Business Insider’s piece dives into one of Kalshi’s most‑watched contracts: “Who will win the next Super Bowl?” The article notes that Kalshi allowed a user to place a $5 contract on a “Brady‑Manning” matchup – a hypothetical scenario in which Tom Brady’s New England Patriots would face Peyton Manning’s (now retired) Denver Broncos. While the two players never played against each other on the field, the contract was created as a high‑visibility test case, complete with live odds and a real‑time order book.
Mansour explained that “high‑profile bets like Brady vs. Manning are great because they draw media attention, but they also demonstrate how a regulated exchange can handle a large, emotionally‑charged market without the volatility that you sometimes see on unregulated platforms.” The article documents that the price for the Brady contract rose from 0.15 to 0.30 within an hour of launch – a 100% jump – illustrating the liquidity that Kalshi can offer due to its regulatory oversight and the presence of institutional investors.
Polymarket, on the other hand, did not offer a Brady‑Manning contract. The platform’s community‑driven curation system left the “bet” off its platform, arguing that it would violate community guidelines on “off‑topic” sports wagers that have no real betting history. The omission, according to Business Insider, is a clear example of the “tension” between a regulated market and a decentralized, community‑curated one.
Market traction and the path forward
Kalshi has reportedly attracted over 2 million registered users and a $1.2 billion trading volume in its first two years of operation. It is also expanding its product line beyond sports to cover political events, climate outcomes and global supply‑chain shocks. The company has already partnered with the Major League Baseball (MLB) to offer event contracts on player injuries and with the National Association of Realtors to allow bets on the U.S. housing market’s rebound after the pandemic.
Polymarket, meanwhile, is focused on building a broader token economy. Its team is experimenting with “tokenized futures” that allow users to speculate on long‑term events such as “the price of Bitcoin by 2030.” It also has a layer‑two solution (Polygon) that reduces transaction fees, and it plans to launch a “Polymarket Pro” tier for institutional users that will provide enhanced analytics and compliance tools.
Where does the rivalry end up?
The Business Insider article concludes that while both platforms aim to bring new forms of speculation to mainstream audiences, their fundamental philosophies diverge. Kalshi, with its CFTC licence, positions itself as a “responsible, transparent” exchange that can coexist with traditional financial markets. Polymarket offers a “frictionless, community‑driven” alternative that appeals to the crypto‑generation’s appetite for decentralization.
For investors and traders, the choice may come down to the risk appetite and the regulatory environment they are comfortable with. As Mansour points out, “there’s still a place for both, and the market will eventually dictate who wins the race.” Whether the Brady‑Manning bet will be the first flashpoint that decides the outcome remains to be seen, but it’s clear that the Kalshi‑Polymarket rivalry is shaping the future of prediction markets in a way that hasn’t been seen before.
Read the Full Business Insider Article at:
[ https://www.businessinsider.com/kalshi-ceo-tarek-mansour-polymarket-rivalry-football-brady-manning-2025-12 ]
