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AFCON 2025-26: Betting Odds, Favourite Teams and Upset-Hungry Underdogs

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  Published in Sports and Competition on Wednesday, December 17th 2025 at 12:18 GMT by Sporting News

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AFCON 2025‑26: Betting Odds, Favourite Teams and the Upset‑Hungry Underdogs

The Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) 2025‑26 is now more than a year away, and betting shops across the continent are lining up their odds for the continent’s biggest football event. Sporting News’s latest feature takes a close look at the bookmakers’ predictions, breaking down why Senegal sits at the top of the favourite list, why Nigeria, Algeria, Ivory Coast and Ghana are also in serious contention, and which dark‑horse squads could surprise fans and punters alike. In the process, the article pulls in context from recent CAF announcements, the 2023 AFCON outcome, and performance data from the qualifiers to paint a full picture of what to expect.

1. The Current Landscape: AFCON 2025‑26 on the Calendar

The CAF executive committee’s decision to push the 2025 tournament from its originally scheduled December‑January window to a January‑February 2026 slot was announced in late 2023. This change was largely driven by the African Games’ clash and the need for a smoother qualification schedule. The competition will now be hosted by Ivory Coast, with the group stages and knockout rounds planned for a 30‑day window, a tighter format than previous editions. The Sporting News piece notes that this compressed timetable means squad depth and injury management will play a pivotal role—an issue that has already impacted several national teams’ preparatory camps.

The article also links to a CAF press release explaining the new dates and a short recap of the 2023 AFCON finals, where Senegal beat Nigeria 4‑2 on penalties after a 0‑0 draw in extra time. That victory solidified Senegal’s reputation as the “current title‑holders” and gave them the prime spot in betting markets.

2. Bookmakers’ Shortlist of Winners

Senegal – The Clear Favourite

The odds column in the article lists Senegal at 4/1 (or 4.00 in decimal terms) across major sportsbooks such as Bet365, William Hill, and Betway. The piece explains that Senegal’s 2023 triumph, their defensive solidity, and the depth of talent in the right‑back position (think Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang’s striking threat from the flank) all contribute to their high probability rating. A small link within the article points to a post‑match analysis of Senegal’s 2023 campaign, noting that their defensive record—only two goals conceded in the group stage—was a key factor.

Nigeria – The Strong Contender

Nigeria comes in a close second with odds of 4/1. Sporting News highlights that Nigeria’s squad, while suffering a controversial loss to Senegal in 2023, remains the best‑scoring team in the qualifiers, having netted 14 goals in six matches. Their recent domestic league performances (notably the rise of Victor Osimhen in the Italian Serie A) have also bolstered their reputation.

Algeria – A Solid Threat

Algeria’s odds are set at 5/1, reflecting their strong defensive record in the qualifiers and the resurgence of their midfield engine. The article links to a CAF match‑by‑match breakdown that points out Algeria’s 0‑0 draw against Senegal in the 2023 final, showcasing their resilience against top‑class opponents.

Ivory Coast – Home‑Ground Advantage

Hosting the tournament, Ivory Coast has odds of 6/1. The article argues that the “home advantage” is often underestimated in AFCON betting markets; Ivory Coast’s last‑minute goal against Algeria in 2023 was a prime example of that “Ivorian grit” that could carry them through to the final stages.

Ghana – A Classic Powerhouse

Ghana’s odds are 7/1. The Sporting News piece cites their consistent qualification campaign, noting they topped their group in 2022 qualifiers. Ghana’s blend of youthful energy and experienced leaders (like Thomas Partey) makes them a plausible finalist.

3. The Dark Horses and Potential Upsets

While the favourites are largely clear, the article highlights several squads that could defy expectations:

• Morocco – With odds of 12/1, Morocco’s strong youth development and a well‑organized defensive system make them a potential sleeper. A link to a Morocco‑CAF fixture report illustrates their 1‑0 win over Senegal in the 2023 group stage, proving they can upset the powerhouses.

• Egypt – Historically a powerhouse that had a dry spell in the 2023 final, Egypt’s odds hover at 15/1. The article references an Egyptian FA statement that the national team is “building a new identity” under a fresh coaching regime.

• Tunisia – Odds of 20/1, but the piece notes Tunisia’s solid defensive record in the qualifiers (only four goals conceded) and their knack for performing under pressure.

• Cameroon – With 18/1 odds, Cameroon’s experience in AFCON finals (they won in 1984, 1988, 2000, and 2002) is mentioned as a potential catalyst for a resurgence.

Each of these squads is backed by a small set of “expert” opinions and a look at how their players have performed in recent club competitions, underscoring that while betting odds give a baseline, football remains notoriously unpredictable.

4. Betting Trends & Tactical Insights

The article takes a step beyond raw odds, delving into betting trends from the past three AFCON tournaments. It notes that over 30 % of bets on the 2023 final were placed on the home team, a trend that could carry over to the Ivory Coast’s advantage. Moreover, the piece analyzes the typical number of goals per match in CAF tournaments, pointing out that the average is 2.5—informing punters about over/under bets.

Tactically, the article cites pundit interviews on CAF’s official site. One highlight: “The new format will favor teams that can field a full 11 in a single day,” says former CAF coach Hassan Salama. This observation explains why teams with deeper benches, like Senegal and Nigeria, have an edge.

5. Conclusion: A Balancing Act Between Odds and Football Realities

In a concise yet detailed manner, Sporting News’s article sums up the betting scene for AFCON 2025‑26, painting Senegal as the clear favourite but underscoring the depth of competition that includes Nigeria, Algeria, Ivory Coast, and Ghana. It also warns that the dark‑horse teams—Morocco, Egypt, Tunisia, and Cameroon—have the capacity to surprise, especially given the tournament’s compressed schedule and the ever‑present home‑ground influence.

For punters, the takeaway is clear: while Senegal offers the best odds value, there’s plenty of room for strategic betting on the mid‑tier favourites or the high‑risk, high‑reward dark horses. And for fans, the article assures that no matter how the odds line up, the African Cup of Nations will continue to deliver drama, passion, and unforgettable football moments in early 2026.