College Football Playoff Bracket Week 8 Live Projections: Miami Drops After Upset

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  Sports and Competition on Sat, Oct 18th, 2025 by Sports Illustrated

The CFP Picture Sharpens: Washington, Michigan Remain Frontrunners as Week 8 Shifts Projections

The College Football Playoff picture is becoming increasingly defined following a week of significant upsets and dominant performances. Sports Illustrated’s updated playoff projections, last revised November 5, 2023, reflect these shifts, maintaining Washington and Michigan as the top two teams while introducing considerable volatility in the third and fourth spots. The analysis, based on both data-driven models and human evaluation, highlights the challenges of predicting a final four given the remaining games on each team’s schedule.

Currently, Washington (9-0) sits firmly at number one. Their undefeated record and consistently strong offensive output have solidified their position. The Huskies' victory over Oregon State last Saturday was particularly crucial, demonstrating resilience against a previously highly ranked opponent. The projected path forward involves games against Utah and Oregon, both of which present considerable challenges within the Pac-12 Conference. While favored in both contests, these are not guaranteed wins, and any slip-up could significantly impact their playoff hopes.

Michigan (9-0) occupies the number two spot, mirroring Washington’s undefeated status. The Wolverines' dominant defense continues to be a defining characteristic of their team. Their recent victory over Penn State, a game many considered a pivotal test, reinforced their claim as a national championship contender. The remaining schedule includes games against Minnesota, Maryland, and Ohio State. While Minnesota and Maryland are perceived as less daunting opponents, the annual clash with Ohio State remains a brutal proving ground – a potential elimination game for playoff aspirations.

The competition for the third and fourth spots is considerably more heated. Florida State (8-1) currently holds the number three position. The Seminoles’ only loss came on the road against LSU in a high-scoring affair. Their offense, led by quarterback Jordan Travis, has been prolific throughout the season. However, their remaining schedule includes games against Miami and Florida, both of which are capable of challenging them significantly. The potential for another loss, particularly against Florida, could see them fall out of playoff contention.

Oregon (8-1) occupies the number four spot, rebounding from a loss to Washington with a decisive victory over Cal. The Ducks’ offense remains potent, but their defense has shown vulnerabilities throughout the season. Their remaining schedule includes games against Utah and Oregon State. A win against Utah would be crucial for maintaining their playoff hopes, while a potential rematch with Washington in the Pac-12 Championship game could determine their ultimate fate.

Several other teams are lurking just outside the projected top four, creating significant uncertainty. Alabama (8-1) is positioned at number five. Their loss to Texas earlier in the season proved costly, but they have since reeled off a series of impressive victories. Their remaining schedule includes games against LSU and Auburn. A win against LSU would be particularly impactful, potentially boosting their playoff resume. However, the SEC’s competitive landscape makes any victory far from guaranteed.

Texas (8-1) sits at number six. The Longhorns' loss to Oklahoma was a significant setback, but they have demonstrated resilience in subsequent games. Their offense has been explosive, and their defense is steadily improving. Their remaining schedule includes games against Kansas State and Texas Tech. While these are perceived as manageable opponents, the earlier defeat casts a shadow over their playoff prospects.

Penn State (7-2) occupies the number seven spot. The Nittany Lions’ loss to Michigan was a significant blow, but they remain in contention for a New Year's Six bowl game. Their remaining schedule includes games against Indiana and Maryland. A strong finish could potentially elevate them into playoff consideration, although it would require considerable upheaval within the top six.

LSU (7-2) is ranked number eight. The Tigers’ offense remains potent, but their defense has struggled at times. Their victory over Florida State demonstrated their potential, but inconsistency has plagued their season. Their remaining schedule includes games against Alabama and Arkansas. A win against Alabama would significantly bolster their playoff hopes.

Oklahoma (7-2) is ranked number nine. The Sooners’ victory over Texas was a defining moment for the program, but they have since faced challenges. Their offense remains explosive, but their defense needs to improve. Their remaining schedule includes games against West Virginia and Oklahoma State.

The Sports Illustrated projections emphasize that several scenarios could drastically alter the playoff landscape in the coming weeks. Key matchups between top-ranked teams will be pivotal, and unexpected upsets remain a distinct possibility. The volatility of college football ensures that the final four will likely not be determined until the very last game of the regular season. The analysis highlights the importance of conference championship games, which often serve as de facto playoff selection rounds.

https://www.si.com/college-football/2023/11/05/college-football-playoff-bracket-week-8-live-projections