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Bracketology Frenzy: Houston Holds No. 1 Seed

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  Published in Sports and Competition on Tuesday, February 10th 2026 at 9:06 GMT by USA Today
      Locales: Texas, Indiana, North Carolina, Illinois, UNITED STATES

Tuesday, February 10th, 2026 - As the regular season winds down and conference tournaments begin to cast a long shadow, the annual frenzy of NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament predictions - affectionately known as Bracketology - is hitting its peak. The latest projections from USA Today, released today, show the University of Houston continuing to hold the coveted No. 1 overall seed, but the competition is tightening, and several teams are battling furiously for both automatic bids and crucial at-large berths.

Purdue has made a significant leap, securing its place amongst the elite top four, demonstrating consistent performance throughout the season. Alongside Houston and Purdue, Duke and Kansas complete the quartet of No. 1 seeds, representing the strength of the ACC and Big 12 conferences, respectively. These four programs have largely dominated their conference play and built impressive resumes that withstand scrutiny. However, the landscape is incredibly dynamic, and even these top teams aren't guaranteed a smooth path through March.

A Shifting Landscape and Critical Conference Tournaments

While the top four appear relatively stable, the next tier is a swirling vortex of potential. Alabama, Baylor, and Oregon are all in strong contention for No. 2 and No. 3 seedings, but their fates are largely dependent on their performances in their respective conference tournaments. A surprising early exit for any of these programs could quickly drop them into a more precarious position, potentially forcing them to fight for an at-large bid rather than enjoying the relative security of a higher seed. The Southeastern Conference (SEC) tournament, in particular, promises to be a brutal battleground with multiple teams vying for a top-16 seed.

Beyond the contenders for high seeds, a crowded group of teams finds themselves squarely on the "bubble" - the precarious line between making the 68-team tournament field and watching Selection Sunday from home. Oklahoma State, Syracuse, and Clemson are among the most talked-about bubble teams. Their NCAA Tournament hopes are hanging by a thread, requiring a strong showing in their conference tournaments to impress the selection committee. A single win, or a surprising loss by a competing team, could be the difference between celebrating a bid and preparing for the NIT.

Saint Mary's, Nevada, Ole Miss, Minnesota, TCU, and Washington also find themselves in this nerve-wracking position. Each game from here on out carries immense weight, and the pressure will undoubtedly be intense as these teams navigate the final stretch of the season. The mid-major conferences, in particular, will be under the microscope as the committee attempts to balance rewarding successful programs with the inherent strength of the power conferences.

The First Four: A Glimpse of Disappointment

For some, the dream is already fading. Arizona State, Georgia Tech, VCU, and Louisville currently reside in the unfortunate position of being the "first four out," according to USA Today's projection. These teams have shown flashes of potential, but a combination of inconsistent play and tough competition has left them on the outside looking in. They'll need a miracle - or a series of upsets by other bubble teams - to sneak into the field.

Looking Ahead: Selection Sunday and the Road to Phoenix

As we approach Selection Sunday (March 14th), the bracketology predictions will become increasingly frequent and refined. The conference tournaments will provide the final pieces of the puzzle, revealing which teams will earn automatic bids and which will be left to plead their case to the selection committee. This year's tournament is shaping up to be particularly competitive, with multiple potential champions and a wide range of teams capable of making a deep run. The 2026 Final Four will be held in Phoenix, Arizona, and the anticipation is already building for what promises to be an unforgettable March Madness. The margins are thin, the pressure is immense, and the unpredictable nature of college basketball is what makes this tournament so captivating for fans across the nation.